Like everywhere else, China has seen the cost of solar power dive over the last decade, with a 63 percent drop between 2011 and 2018 alone. In line with that, the installation of solar has risen dramatically. From a report: Currently, a third of the entire planet’s new solar capacity is being commissioned in China; the country passed the installed capacity of the US in 2013 and Germany in 2015, and it now has over 250 GW active — well more than double what its economic plan had specified by this point. Given that China plans to hit net zero emissions by 2060, it is likely to continue this building spree. But the forecast is not all rosy. Most of China’s population is located in the country’s southeast. The best solar resources (in terms of cloudless days and available land) are in the northwest, which also happens to be sparsely populated.
This mismatch has left solar facing constraints due to limits in the ability of China’s grids to shift power across its vast distances. The output of solar plants in the northwest has frequently ended up curtailed, as there’s no capacity to send it where it’s needed. As a result, it’s been somewhat difficult to fully understand the economics of solar power in China. To get a clearer picture, the researchers built a model that takes into account most of the factors influencing solar’s performance. The model tracks changes in technology, economics, solar resources, and the Chinese grid for the period from 2020 to 2060. It used six years of satellite weather data to estimate typical productivity in different areas of the country, and it included information on existing land use that would interfere with solar-farm siting.
Read more of this story at Slashdot.