According to an article by DigiTimes, which kind of states the obvious, the foundry industry isn’t likely to change much over the next few years, as the cost of building a cutting edge foundry keeps increasing, which means the competition isn’t likely to catch up with the market leaders. The costs mentioned are estimates, but seem quite likely and explains why there’s so little competition in the foundry business.
It’s unclear if the costs have been inflation adjusted or not, but a 90 nm 12-inch fab that could output 50,000 wafers a month, is said to have cost US$2.4 billion to build when it was the cutting edge node. Once things moved on to 28 nm, the equivalent fab would’ve cost US$6 billion, whereas a cutting edge 5 nm fab today, comes in at as much as US$16 billion. These are obviously long term investments, as even today, 90 nm nodes are used for plenty of chips, but most of the nodes above 28 nm are today used for specialty products rather than commonly used ICs, unless we’re talking about 8-bit microcontrollers or some simpler components which companies such as TSMC and Samsung wouldn’t even bother making.
