Throughout 2021, two leading lights of the Royal Statistical Society Covid-19 Task Force drew on data for a weekly Observer column, and found themselves in the middle of Covid culture warsIndividual experiences and suffering are, of course, at the hear…
Exponential growth is unintuitive and can be frightening | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
But, fortunately, it cannot continue indefinitelyThe health secretary impressed parliament last week when he said daily Omicron infections were estimated at about 200,000. This was classic “number theatre” – pulling a big statistic out of a hat without…
More people are dying at home than in the past | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Did they receive care and compassion from loved ones or did they die alone, fearful of getting infected in hospital?From the start of the pandemic to 24 September 2021, deaths at home in England and Wales have been 37% higher than the 2015-2019 average…
Take care with claims about unvaccinated case rates | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Different estimates of the population can produce wildly different ratesITV’s political editor, Robert Peston, wrote a Twitter thread with the headline: “Infections higher among double vaxxed for those [aged] 40 to 79 than for non-vaxxed.” ITV changed …
Numbers don’t always mean what they seem to mean | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
It pays to always check what is actually being countedLast Wednesday, the Evening Standard trumpeted “Covid deaths rocket to 207 in deadliest day in nearly 6 months”. In fact, deaths within 24 days of a positive test were slightly down over the previou…
Who is now receiving critical care for Covid? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Almost one in three younger women admitted are currently or recently pregnantIn his memoir of having Covid-19, the poet Michael Rosen recalled doctors telling him he had a 50–50 chance of surviving mechanical ventilation.This advice was optimistic: of …
Covid has played havoc with interpreting economic trends | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Caution is needed when extrapolating from statistics in times that are far from normalSome economic effects of the coronavirus are obvious. Pre-pandemic, the share of retail sales conducted online had taken around eight years to go from 10% to 20%, but…
Will we reach herd immunity for the new coronavirus? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
It appears unlikely, but we should try to get as close as possibleThe Office for National Statistics Covid infection survey estimates that, either through vaccination or infection, an extraordinary 94% of adults now have antibodies to Sars-CoV-2.So why…
Daily cases can be falling while the number of people infected still rises | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Just think of filling a bath when you forgot to put the plug inAt present, confirmed cases in the UK are declining; by specimen date in England, they fell by 29% in the week up to 24 July. In contrast, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates…